United Nations Environment Programme, Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target (2025)

January 5, 2026

The 2025 edition of the Emissions Gap Report, prepared by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), offers a comprehensive and policy-relevant assessment of the adequacy of current State action under the Paris Agreement. As part of UNEP’s flagship analytical series, the report evaluates the discrepancy between projected global greenhouse gas emissions and the reductions required to meet the Agreement’s temperature goals of limiting global warming to 1.5°C or, at a minimum, well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

The report’s findings confirm the existence of a persistent “emissions gap,” which reflects the discrepancy between political commitments and scientific benchmarks. Even in scenarios assuming full implementation of updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), global emissions trends remain incompatible with the Paris Agreement’s temperature objectives. This gap is further exacerbated by delays in implementation, insufficient sectoral transformation, and continued reliance on fossil fuels. The report thus highlights the structural limitations of a governance framework that relies heavily on nationally determined, non-binding commitments, which are subject to weak compliance mechanisms.

From a legal perspective, the report is particularly significant in highlighting the tension between the Paris Agreement’s facilitative architecture and the urgent need for enforceable obligations. It underscores the importance of enhancing transparency, strengthening accountability processes, and aligning domestic regulatory frameworks with international climate objectives. Furthermore, it places climate change mitigation within the broader context of discussions regarding the effectiveness of multilateral environmental agreements and the evolution of international environmental law toward stronger compliance-focused models.

As such, the Emissions Gap Report 2025 constitutes an essential reference for scholars and practitioners seeking to assess the current performance and future direction of global climate governance.

The report follows at the link below

https://wedocs.unep.org/rest/api/core/bitstreams/4830e1a8-14c0-44a5-a066-cdd2ba5b3e10/content

 

About the author

Evangelos Raftopoulos
Editor and Founding Director of MEPIELAN Centre | evanraft@gmail.com | Author's Website

Professor Emeritus of International Law, Panteion University, Athens, Greece, Fellow, C-EENRG, University of Cambridge, United Kingdom

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